Question

Statement: The price of petrol has increased. Conclusions: I. Transportation costs may rise. II. People will stop using vehicles.

1. Transportation costs may rise.
2. People will stop using vehicles.

• A. Only I follows
• B. Only II follows
• C. Both follow
• D. Neither follows

Answer 1

Answer:

A. Only I follows

Logical Deduction Analysis

• Conclusion I (Valid): Petrol is a primary fuel source for the majority of commercial vehicles, logistics, and public transport systems. Therefore, an increase in petrol prices directly elevates operational costs for transporters. To maintain profit margins, these businesses typically pass the increased costs onto consumers by raising freight or passenger fares. This is a direct and logical cause-effect relationship.
• Conclusion II (Invalid): While a price hike influences consumer behavior, concluding that people will completely 'stop using vehicles' is an extreme and impractical generalization. Transport is an essential service for daily life, employment, and emergency needs. While individuals might reduce discretionary travel or seek alternative modes (such as public transport or carpooling), total cessation of vehicle usage is not a logical consequence of a price increase.

Key Reasoning Principles for Exams

• Causality: Analytical reasoning questions test the ability to distinguish between a logical consequence (something that follows naturally) and an extreme assumption (something unlikely or hyperbolic).
• Direct vs. Indirect Effects: Always prioritize outcomes that have a direct, systemic impact (like inflation of costs) over behavioral predictions that are subject to human variables (like stopping vehicle usage).
• Avoiding Extremes: In competitive reasoning tests, any conclusion using absolute terms such as 'all,' 'stop,' 'always,' or 'never' is frequently incorrect unless the statement explicitly supports that totality.